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  1. 📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈 ‼️ Weak China figures cloud outlook for global economy 📰 China’s economic slowdown deepened in July due to a worsening property slump and continued coronavirus lockdowns. The Chinese central banks made an unexpected interest rates cut in an attempt to improve financial conditions for Chinese companies. Chinese Retail sales, industrial output and investment all slowed and missed economists estimates in July. The unemployment rate for 16- to 24-year-olds climbed to 19.9% - a new record high and a clear sign that the world's most important growth economy is anything but growing. Global markets are looking back on strong weeks with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ending the last four weeks with gains. European stocks are mostly flat but more export oriented sectors, such as the auto stocks are trading lower. Wall Street points to a slightly lower opening. Losses in emerging markets are sharper. I expect recession concerns to further rise - in particular in Europe and believe that the recent rally will be on very shaky footing this week and likely for the rest of the month. US stocks, however, will continue to outperform with US economic data still showing many signs that the US economy is not (yet) in recession. The USD gained during Asian / European trading with also investors expecting the Fed to remain focused on bringing US inflation down. Signs that US inflation already peaked out in the previous week helped Wall Street to extend the rally for another week. The stronger USD and a worsened risk sentiment weighs on commodity prices - in particular oil started the week with heavy losses (we expected this to happen and positioned us SHORT in oil on Friday - again ahead of the markets). Weaker commodity prices and a strong USD will weigh on riskier assets (and currencies like CAD, AUD and GBP) today. Chinese demand for commodities is very important for energy and industrial metals prices. The stronger USD also weighed on gold prices - but gold is likely to see some support as a safe haven, although hawkish comments from Fed officials could push gold prices back down in the short term and the USD back towards July highs. 👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW: 🇺🇸 US Markets ➡️/↘️ Cyclical Stocks ↘️ Tech/Growth Stocks ➡️/↘️ Financial stocks ➡️/↘️ Energy ↘️ 💱 Forex Markets USD, CHF ↗️ JPY ➡️/↗️ EUR ➡️/↘️ GBP, CAD, AUD, NZD, NOK ↘️ ⚒ Commodity Markets ↘️ Oil prices ↘️ Natural Gas prices ➡️/↘️ Metal prices ↘️ Precious Metals ➡️/↘️ ⚡️Crypto Market ➡️/↘️ (*↗️ bullish, ↘️ bearish, ➡️ sideways / stable, ↕️ mixed / volatile) Yours, Robert 🇨🇳🤢📉🌍
    1 point
  2. 📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈 ‼️ Market remains positive & hopes for start of "disinflation" 📰 Global equity futures continue their gains on Friday and stocks in New York are also trading in the green in pre-market trading. The S&P 500 is up more than 1.5% this week, largely due to the rally that began on Wednesday after the better-than-expected consumer price report. The S&P 500 (and Nasdaq 100) are heading for their fourth consecutive positive week - the longest weekly winning streak since November 2021. Fundamentals remain encouraging after two inflation reports in the US showed that the inflation trend could be turning. US imports and exports continue to grow strongly and the labor market remains strong - signs that the US economy remains in good shape despite tighter monetary policy. The US economy seems to be entering a phase of disinflation, which means that inflation, which is still very high, could slowly cool down. Declining interest rate hike bets also support the current rally. Later in the day, important data on US consumer confidence will be released. The dollar has risen contrary to analysts' expectations (we had forecast the opposite, that USD weakness would be short-lived, and were correct). Ten-year US Treasury yields fell to 2.85% after yesterday's gains - which will help precious metals rally today. A continuous inverted yield curve continues to point to concerns of a recession. Crude oil fell after selling gains, reducing its biggest weekly gain in about four months. I see energy prices moving sideways, benefiting from improved risk sentiment but facing headwinds from a stronger USD. Investors are rushing back into stocks and bonds, according to Bank of America. US equities saw inflows of $11 billion, the highest in eight weeks. Dirk Steffen, global chief investment strategist at Deutsche Bank, said in an interview that the upswing could go further as inflation is trending down. As so often in recent months, investment banks are running behind the markets, but the positive voices will support the current rally. 👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW: 🇺🇸 US Markets ➡️/↗️ Cyclical Stocks ↗️ Tech/Growth Stocks ➡️/↗️ Financial stocks ➡️/↗️ Energy ➡️ 💱 Forex Markets AUD ↗️ USD, NZD, EUR ➡️/↗️ CHF ➡️ GBP, JPY ➡️/↘️ ⚒ Commodity Markets ↕️ Oil prices ➡️/↘️ Natural Gas prices ➡️/↘️ Metal prices ➡️/↗️ Precious Metals ➡️/↗️ ⚡️Crypto Market ➡️ (*↗️ bullish, ↘️ bearish, ➡️ sideways / stable, ↕️ mixed / volatile) Yours, Robert 💸🚀❌
    1 point
  3. 📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈 ‼️ Encouraging inflation report(s) extend stock market rally 📰 We are seeing a battle between Fed officials remaining resolute on the need for further interest-rate increases and hawkish rhetoric on the one side and hope of investors on the other side that monetary tightening will slowed down with inflationary pressure showing signs of easing. Investor's risk appetite received a strong boost yesterday after headline US-CPI came in lower-than-expected and showed signs of cooling from even higher levels. Optimism received another boost just now with also producer price index (PPI - July) showing signs of cooling. PPI showed a decline of 0.5%, compared to an estimate of a 0.2% gain. The PPI reading excluding food and energy rose less than expected, but shows that the biggest driving factor has been the decline in oil prices in July. I expect markets to remain positive today as inflation concerns have been a major theme for markets and inflation in particular has continued to rise despite the Fed's very tight monetary policy. Market sentiment also still benefits from the positive earnings season. Shares of Walt Disney rose more than 8% in pre-market trading after the media giant reported higher-than-expected subscriber numbers and better-than-expected profit and revenue for the second quarter. Disney also announced it would raise prices for Disney+, which is expected to be Disney's biggest boost. Our community is LONG on Disney and will realize millions in profit at today's NYSE opening. Crude oil prices rose as the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for global demand growth this year, as rising natural gas prices and heat waves prompt industry and power generators to switch their fuel to oil. I believe the IEA has a strong point and expect a tailwind for oil for now. European power prices climbed to new records today - so concerns about tight oil/gas supplies remain for now. Lower rate hike bets will continue to weigh on the USD and government bond yields, helping to support gold. Improved risk sentiment will also help riskier assets (e.g. cyclical equities / tech) and currencies (AUD, CAD). 👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW: 🇺🇸 US Markets ↗️ Cyclical Stocks ↗️ Tech/Growth Stocks ↗️ Financial stocks ↗️ Energy ↗️ 💱 Forex Markets AUD, NZD ↗️ CAD, EUR, JPY ➡️/↗️ USD, CHF ➡️ GBP ➡️/↘️ ⚒ Commodity Markets ↗️ Oil prices ↗️ Natural Gas prices ↗️ Metal prices ↗️ Precious Metals ➡️/↗️ ⚡️Crypto Market ↗️ (*↗️ bullish, ↘️ bearish, ➡️ sideways / stable, ↕️ mixed / volatile) Yours, Robert 🌬🔥💵📉
    1 point
  4. 📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈 ‼️ US inflation report will set the tone for rest of the month 📰 Global markets are barely moving as investors await US inflation data for July, which could either cement the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening or trigger a pullback in rate hike bets. The US consumer price index (released at 12:30 GMT) is expected to have fallen last month from the 41-year high of 9.1% (June), which could lead to a slower pace of monetary tightening by the Fed. In that case, the stock market rally that started in the second half of July will get a new boost and continue for now. Higher than expected inflation could lead to a sharp sell-off and a rise in the USD. I believe that while inflation has fallen, the data is not strong enough to cause the Fed to significantly slow rate hikes; however, I believe markets can take a positive view of today's CPI. Markets in Europe and Asia were essentially unchanged - not atypical for August, but also because investors in Europe and Asia are waiting for the US inflation data, which can be a strong indicator of the Fed's upcoming monetary policy decision and thus strongly influence the world's largest economy. The inflation report from Germany did not surprise much - which could be an indicator of slowing inflation in the US. The ECB is still under pressure to tighten monetary policy, which supports the EUR. In New York, markets are slightly up, suggesting that the majority of investors are optimistic that there will be signs of a slowdown in inflation after the June peak. Lower energy prices may have played a key role in inflationary pressures in July. The US average cost of a gallon of gasoline is expected to fall below $4 this week for the first time since early March, more than 21% below the record levels seen in early June - lower gasoline prices are definitely a driving factor behind cooling inflation. The USD remains in a sideways range after recovering slightly in the last session. WTI fell below $90 a barrel as a major pipeline from Russia to Central Europe, which transports oil through Ukraine, is expected to come back on stream in the coming days. In addition, US oil inventories surprisingly rose. The gold price is hovering near $1,790 and will be heavily influenced by the US inflation report (and changing US government bond yields). A slowdown in inflation would push gold above $1,800. 👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW: (depends very much on US consumer price index data; this/my forecast is based on a moderate slowdown of inflation in the US) 🇺🇸 US Markets ↕️ Cyclical Stocks ↕️/↗️ Tech/Growth Stocks ↕️/↗️ Financial stocks ↕️ Energy ↕️/↘️ 💱 Forex Markets CHF, EUR ➡️/↗️ GBP, AUD ➡️ USD, JPY ➡️/↘️ ⚒ Commodity Markets ↕️/↘️ Oil prices ➡️/↘️ Natural Gas prices ➡️/↘️ Metal prices ➡️/↘️ Precious Metals ↗️ ⚡️Crypto Market ➡️ (*↗️ bullish, ↘️ bearish, ➡️ sideways / stable, ↕️ mixed / volatile) Yours, Robert 🇺🇸💸🔍🔍🔍🌍
    1 point
  5. 📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈 ‼️ Stock market rally loses steam; Inflation / earnings in focus 📰 Wall Street remains under pressure after another chipmaker (Micron) warned that revenue may fall short of its prior guidance because of macroeconomic factors and ongoing supply chain constraints. Nvidia's poor forecast yesterday ended a strong performance of the tech sector that pushed the Nasdaq 100 to multi-months highs. The rebound in US stocks that started in the second half of July has turned increasingly fragile, with stronger-than-expected economic data dulling optimism that the Fed would moderate the pace of rate hikes. We see falling trading volume with investors awaiting tomorrow's inflation reading that could play an important role for the Fed's upcoming monetary policy decisions and the pace of upcoming rate hikes. However, most investment banks remain rather optimistic although don't advise to chase stock gains anymore after recent strong gains. Earnings reports have been stronger than expected this earnings season with around 81% of the S&P 500 companies either beat or met expectations. For today I expect mostly sideways movement. But the poor performance of US chips stocks currently still weighs on Wall Street. Also handover from Europe and Asia has been negative with most sectors in Europe in the red. New regulation concerns in China weighed on Asian in particular Chinese/HK markets. We also see somewhat stronger demand for commodities as energy prices rebound after the recent slump. Oil prices surged after Ukraine halted oil deliveries via the South Druzhba pipeline, which also affected Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. However, concerns about slower than expected economic growth and renewed nuclear talks between the US and Iran continue to create headwinds. Tomorrow's consumer price index data in the US will be extremely important. Overall, I see the current rally coming under increasing pressure and it is likely that profit taking after gains will limit a further rally. I believe that inflation will be higher than expected tomorrow, which means that expectations for further rate hikes will remain and equities will remain under pressure (especially tomorrow). 👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW: 🇺🇸 US Markets ➡️ Cyclical Stocks ➡️/↘️ Tech/Growth Stocks ➡️ Financial stocks ➡️ Energy ➡️/↗️ 💱 Forex Markets USD, EUR, CAD, CHF ➡️ GBP, JPY, AUD ➡️/↘️ ⚒ Commodity Markets ↕️ Oil prices ➡️ Natural Gas prices ➡️ Metal prices ➡️/↗️ Precious Metals ➡️/↗️ ⚡️Crypto Market ➡️/↘️ (*↗️ bullish, ↘️ bearish, ➡️ sideways / stable, ↕️ mixed / volatile) Yours, Robert 📈📈❌🔍
    1 point
  6. 📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈 ‼️ Strong US economic data extends rally; Fed rate bets increase 📰 We have seen markets recovering strongly since the week July 18 based on better than expected economic data and strong earnings results. More upbeat economic data, in particular Friday's strong job report continue to support analysts views of a resilient US economy and extends the rotation into those sectors that benefit from expectations of recovering / positive economy. The recent rally was also supported by expectations that inflation may peak or has already peaked and a slowdown in future rate hikes by the Fed. However, Friday's much stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data may add to the case for more Fed monetary tightening. Investors will thus in particular look for more guidance on the latest reading for the US consumer price index, slated for release Wednesday. Overall we see expectations for 75bps rate hike (meaning that the Fed remains very hawkish) increasing - this also resulted in choppy trading on Friday. For now, I expect investors to remain optimistic and also lower bond yields and a positive performance of European and mostly Asian stocks provide some relief to increased rate hike bets. Lower bond yields will provide tailwinds to gold. While the rally continues into its fourth weeks, slipping oil prices and potentially upcoming more hawkish comments from Fed officials could be signs for a reversal. The energy sector will underperform with oil prices remaining bearish. We also see mostly optimistic investment banks - however, I believe that the market rally went quite far already - we may have already seen the best of the current rally before we see may see some selling again later this month. Improved risk sentiment will support riskier perceived currencies (AUD, CAD, GBP ...), but also industrial metal prices and cryptos (short-term). Tensions between the U.S. and China over Taiwan remain high - but I do not expect an escalation at this time, especially because China itself must recover from its own harsh Corona measures. However, China's military has announced new exercises around Taiwan. 👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW: 🇺🇸 US Markets ➡️/↗️ Cyclical Stocks ➡️/↗️ Tech/Growth Stocks ↗️ Financial stocks ➡️/↗️ Energy ➡️/↘️ 💱 Forex Markets AUD, CAD ➡️/↗️ EUR, USD, GBP ➡️ JPY , CHF ➡️/↘️ ⚒ Commodity Markets ↕️ Oil prices ➡️/↘️ Natural Gas prices ↘️ Metal prices ➡️/↗️ Precious Metals ↗️ ⚡️Crypto Market ➡️/↗️ (*↗️ bullish, ↘️ bearish, ➡️ sideways / stable, ↕️ mixed / volatile) Yours, Robert 💪🇺🇸💻🔋📈
    1 point
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